After almost five months of intensive campaign,
President Goodluck Jonathan and former Head of
State, Major General Muhammadu Buhari will slug it
out today in the 36 states and the Federal Capital
Territory ( Abuja) for the exalted position of President
and Commander - in-Chief of the Armed Forces .
Nigerians will also decide those to sit in the next
legislative chambers of the National Assembly – 109
for the Senate and 560 for the House of
Representatives .
It is the first time since the beginning of the present
political dispensation in 1999 and 22 years after 1993
that two major parties will appear evenly matched .
In 1993 , the defunct Social Democratic Party and the
disbanded National Republican Congress , both creation
of the General Ibrahim Babangida government, went
into the election -with bookmakers predicting a close
race. The SDP candidate , Chief MKO won the election
but was annulled by the Babangida government.
In today ’ s polls , many analysts have predicted a tight
race. Both Jonathan and Buhari are however confident
of victory , but many opinion polls give the race to
Buhari .
More than ever , the presidential race has drawn the
attention of observers from the United Nations , the
African Union, the United States , the United Kingdom ,
eight other foreign countries and 96 local observer
groups .
According to the records of the Independent National
Electoral Commission , 14 candidates were cleared to
contest the Presidential election. They are Goodluck
Jonathan ( PDP ) , Mohammadu Buhari ( APC ); Sen .
Tunde Anifowose -Kelani ( AA ); Rafiu Salau ( AD ); Alh .
Ganiyu Galadima ( ACPN ); Dr . Mani Ibrahim Ahmad
( ADC ); Ayeni Musa Adebayo ( APA ); and Chief Sam Eke
( CPP ) .
Others are High Chief Ambrose Albert Owuru ( HDP);
Prof. Comfort Oluremi Sonaiya ( KOWA); Chief Martin
Onovo ( NCP) Allagoa Kelvin Chinedu ( PPN) Godson
Okoye ( UDP ); and Chief Chekwas Okorie ( UPP ) .
The real contest is however between Jonathan and his
arch-rival Buhari . The election has generated tension in
and outside the country . The fears over the keen race
had led to shuttles to the country by ex - UN Secretary -
General, Kofi Annan; the US Secretary of State, John
Kerry; the Special Representative of the UN Secretary -
General, Ibrahim Chambas; ex -President Thabo Mbeki
of South Africa; and the President of Ghana , John
Mahama.
To pave the way for peace during and after the poll,
ex - UN Secretary - General Annan facilitated the signing
of a peace accord by all the political parties on
January 14 , 2015 in Abuja . On Thursday , another
accord was signed between Jonathan and Buhari . Both
candidates pledged to accept the outcome of the
election.
Although the January 14 accord reduced the rate of
political violence during the campaign, the management
of post - election period is a major worry to the
international community , including President Barack
Obama of the US, who urged Nigerians , in a broadcast ,
to accept the outcome of today ’ s election irrespective
of who wins .
Why the poll is unique:
Besides the competitive race between the PDP and
APC , this is the first time in the history of Nigeria that
Permanent Voters Card , card reader and colour code
will be used for different states and local governments
to prevent rigging .
It was learnt that since the 2007 general election
which was largely flawed , INEC had been looking for
alternatives of eradicating electoral malpractice,
especially impersonation, under-age voting , and
declaration of jumbo results .
The Chairman of INEC , Prof . Attahitu Jega , on
Wednesday said : “ This is indeed why they have been
attacking me because they know that the card reader
machines will help us to address all those irregularities ,
starting from the accreditation of voters at all the
polling units . How can they manipulate the election
when all the information with regards to the number of
voters that turned out at every polling unit is
automatically captured and transmitted by the card
reader machines ?
“ We have made rigging impossible for them as there is
no way the total number of votes cast at a polling unit
could exceed the number of accredited persons . Such
discrepancy in figures will be immediately spotted . This
technology will further make it impossible for any
corrupt electoral officer to connive with any politician
to pad -up results . ”
Factors that will determine the outcome of presidential
and national assembly elections:
Factors that will determine the outcome of today ’ s
polls are voting population/strength, ethnic allegiance ,
Boko Haram insurgency , holding the Presidential and
National Assembly elections on the same day, logistics;
the conduct of INEC and its permanent and over
600, 000 ad hoc staff ; the success of PVC , card readers
and effective collation of results from polling units to
ward and others ; security situation/non -molestation of
voters, non deployment of thugs , the impartiality of the
military and other security agencies , and the readiness
of parties , political leaders especially state governors
and candidates to allow a free and fair poll.
Jega said : “ Let me use this opportunity to reassure
Nigerians that we believe that we have done everything
possible to ensure that the 2015 general election is
successful. We are adequately prepared in terms of
both logistics and manpower.
“ Likewise , all the security agencies, especially the
police which have a lead role to play in terms of
providing security during elections , have assured us
that they are ready . ”
In admonishing Nigerians , President Obama alluded to
some of these factors when he said : “ For elections to
be credible, they must be free , fair and peaceful. All
Nigerians must be able to cast their votes without
intimidation or fear .
“ So I call on all leaders and candidates to make it clear
to their supporters that violence has no place in
democratic electionsand that they will not incite ,
support or engage in any kind of violence , before ,
during, or after the votes are counted. ”
What a presidential candidate needs to win:
Most surveys conducted indicate that Buhari has an
edge , but for him to emerge winner he must have
majority of the total votes cast and at least 25 per
cent in two- thirds of the 36 states of the Federation
and the Federal Capital Territory , that is 24 states.
Section 134 ( 2) and ( 3) of the 1999 Constitution says:
“ A candidate for an election to the Office of President
shall be deemed to have been duly elected where ,
there being more than two candidates for the election
( a) he has the highest number of votes cast at the
election; and ( b) he has not less than one- quarter of
the votes cast at the election in each of at least two-
thirds of all the states in the Federation and the
Federal Capital Territory ( FCT ) .
“ In default of a candidate duly elected in accordance
with subsection ( 2) of this section , there shall be a
second election in accordance with subsection ( 4) of
this section at which the only candidate shall be ( a)
the candidate who scored the highest number of votes
at any election held in accordance with the said
subsection ( 2 ) of this section ; and ( b) one among the
remaining candidates who has the a majority of votes
in the highest number of states. So however where
there are more than one candidate with a majority of
votes in the highest number of states, the candidate
among them with the highest total votes cast at the
election shall be the second candidate for the
election. ”
The pre -election outlook yesterday by THE NATION
indicated that Buhari was ahead of Jonathan
nationwide . He has the momentum and is certainly the
candidate to beat.
Save for Taraba , Plateau and Benue states, he is well
ahead of Jonathan in the north . In the 2011 election,
he won most of the Northern states. He is expected to
do better now that he is running on a better, well
structured platform.
The outlook also showed that he will win Lagos, Ogun ,
Osun and Oyo in the Southwest and run neck and neck
with Jonathan in Ekiti and Ondo states, both of which
are controlled by the PDP . In 2011, he performed badly
in the Southwest zone .
He is equally expected to win Edo state and do very
well in Akwa Ibom state , both in the
South South . In both states in 2011 , he lost woefully. In
Rivers state , he is tipped to do fairly well with the
support of Governor Rotimi Amaechi and his formidable
structure .
His weakest zone is southeast where Jonathan is
expected to do well .
The scenarios:
As at last Thursday, the total number of Permanent
Voters Cards collected was 56 , 431 , and 255 ( 81. 98 % ) .
Barring any other factor, these voters may end up
determining the fate of Jonathan and Buhari .
Further findings however revealed that if Jonathan has
100 per cent control of all the votes from the South -
East ( 6, 621 , 541) and the South ( 8, 418, 474 ) , he would
end up with 15 , 040 , 015 votes. As for Buhari , if he has
100 per cent of the votes from the North -East
( 7, 922, 444 ) and the North - West ( 14 , 241, 740 ) , he would
garner 22 , 164 ,184 .
For the two candidates they have to compete for the 9,
238, 718 votes from the South- West ; 7, 661 ,576 from
North -Central and the available 569, 109 votes in the
FCT .
States to watch:
In terms of voting strength and susceptibility to
violence, the 15 states to watch are Kano ( 4, 112, 039);
Lagos ( 3, 799 ,274 ); Kaduna ( 3 ,174 , 519 ); Katsina
( 2, 620, 096 ); Rivers ( 2 , 127, 837 ); Bauchi ( 1, 967 , 081);
Imo ( 1 ,707 , 449); Niger ( 1, 682 ,058 ); Oyo ( 1, 639, 967 );
Benue ( 1, 607, 800 ); Akwa Ibom ( 1, 587, 566 ); Sokoto
( 1, 527, 004 ); Borno ( 1, 407, 777); Adamawa ( 1 ,381 , 571);
and Edo ( 1 ,230 , 566) .
Setting the tone of the likely election outlook in the
affected states, ex -Governor Attahiru Bafarawa on
Wednesday at a grand rally of the PDP in Sokoto State,
said : “ They said we are planning to rig the elections in
the state, I don ’t know why they are afraid of rigging
when they know too well that they are products of the
same mechanism. Let me tell them that we will use
force , rigging and our ballot papers to send them
away . ”
In a statement through its Director of Media and
Publicity, Mallam Garba Shehu, the APC Presidential
Campaign Council , alluded to the challenge in some of
these 15 states.
It said : “ Credible information available to the campaign
from deep inside the Federal Government have starkly
put it to us that the PDP administration has hatched a
plan by which the states of Lagos, Imo , Bayelsa ,
Rivers, Kano and Sokoto will be racked by trouble of a
serious magnitude to sabotage the presidential election
and democracy in the country , in a sinister , wicked and
selfish objective . ”
Concerned by the war drumbeats, some eminent
Nigerians , including ex -Head of State, Abdulsalami
Abubakar , the Sultan of Sokoto, Alh . Abubakar Saad ,
the Catholic Arch - Bishop of Abuja Diocese, Bishop
John Onaiyekan and others had another round of peace
accord session with Jonathan and Buhari on Thursday
morning.
But President Goodluck Jonathan , who addressed
international election observers at the Presidential Villa ,
assured Nigerians of a conclusive poll. He said : “ I’ ll
feel diminished if at the end of the day that the
international and local observers don’ t accept the
process and the result. I won ’ t feel comfortable . ”
As voters troop out today , the next 24 hours will
determine where the nation is headed .
#TheNation
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